In the dynamic landscape of global mining, safety is paramount. Recognizing the critical importance of accurate seismic hazard forecasting for underground excavations, Amira Global’s groundbreaking three-year initiative: Project P1262 – “Block Modelling and Forecasting Mine Seismicity Hazard with More Accuracy and Better Accessibility.”

Addressing Current Shortfalls:

Traditional methods for analysing and forecasting mine seismicity have focused primarily on historical and current mine seismicity. While effective in the short term, these methods fall short when it comes to providing guidance for intermediate and long-term mine planning and design. Amira Project P1262, seeks to bridge this gap by employing advanced numerical modelling methods which can forecast intermediate and long-term future seismicity.

The Global Impact of Mine Seismicity:

Mine seismicity poses a significant challenge in many underground operations, and with mines delving even deeper into the earth, this hazard is expected to become more common. Amira Global recognizes the urgent need for a comprehensive solution to reduce uncertainties surrounding mining-induced seismicity.

The Project’s Objectives:

The P1262 project is designed to develop spatial probabilistic and risk-based descriptions of seismic events triggered by mining activities. The objectives include:

Objective 1: Develop a Multiscale Statistical Model for Seismicity

· Create a theoretical multiscale statistical model for mine seismicity.

· Analyse seismicity at macroscopic, mesoscopic, and microscopic scales.

· Conduct seismic source parameter analysis for a deeper understanding of failure mechanisms.

Objective 2: Develop a Multiscale Model for Forecasting Energy Release Using Numerical Modelling

· Establish links between energy release, problem scale, and seismic probability.

· Define the scale dependency in numerical simulations for post-peak strength characteristics.

· Relate energy release to a probabilistic description of seismicity.

Objective 3: Validate and Calibrate the Simulation Method Applicability

· Establish links between actual seismicity and model energy outputs.

· Utilize global and local scale analysis for a comprehensive seismic risk profile.

· Homogenize seismic source parameters and numerical modelling outputs for validation.

Why It Matters:

This project has far-reaching implications. By harnessing advanced numerical modelling, P1262 aims to provide spatial representations of seismic events, including magnitude, location, subsequent triggered events, and ground velocities. The resulting data will empower mining operations to optimize safety measures, enhance mine design, and transition to a damage-based seismic design method.

Project status: Open to Sponsorship.